The coronavirus pandemic could cause a revolutionary change in the way shoppers buy fresh food, opening new opportunities for all primary producers.
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A leading University of Melbourne retail expert says the pandemic has upended shopping behaviour.
"The thing that is most noticeable about the era we are in is that it has fundamentally changed the context in which people buy products," University of Melbourne Marketing Professor Simon Bell said.
"Most consumer behaviour is highly embedded, habitual and routinised.
Most consumer behaviour is highly embedded, habitual and routinised.
- University of Melbourne Marketing Professor Simon Bell
"We rely not just on habits about brand choice, but also how we shop, when we shop - even the way we walk through a supermarket is completely habitual.
"We have had a change in context imposed on us, habits are being broken almost daily, and even by the minute."
Professor Bell said he expected shoppers would form new habits.
"You are going to have less of a spring back to the old ways of shopping, and much more interest around new patterns of behaviour."
Forced change
A fundamental change would be the continued growth of online shopping, which was good news for farmers selling directly or through internet platforms.
While three per cent of all groceries were bought online before the pandemic, Professor Bell estimated that figure to be "five times that now".
However, he said there were barriers to buying online as consumers liked to smell, feel and touch food.
Other challenges were learning how to use online purchasing and delivery platforms and supplying credit or debit card details.
"What this has done is forced customers to jump some of those hurdles," he said.
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But to capitalise on onlines sales, small producers needed to start looking at branding their products.
'If you are going to have a direct relationship with customers, you have to stand for something; you can't just rest on the laurels of what your product tastes like," Professor Bell said.
"Consumers have to know where it is from; you have to create a brand, a story about the provenance of the goods."
New habits
Freshlogic managing director Martin Kneebone said the most significant change brought about by coronavirus and social distancing regulations, saw patterns of shopping trips change.
"The existing pattern of multiple shopping trips each week, were pretty much consolidated into one," Mr Kneebone said.
"We are seeing shoppers moving from top-up mode to a larger shop."
He said the other change had been brought about by consumers dusting off their old cookbooks and preparing meals at home.
"They have more time, they are exploring more involved ways to prepare and manage their food," Mr Kneebone said.
For 20 years, the fresh food market had been servicing time-poor customers.
"Overnight that dynamic has changed, consumers have now got more time," he said.
"They don't really have the same need for convenience."
Sticky behaviour
Deakin School of Business lecturer Dr Steve Ogden, said panic buying had now subsided and consumers were living off what they had accumulated.
"If you see the last thing on the shelf, you are going to want to buy it - if there are ten things on the shelf, you probably won't," Dr Ogden said.
"Consumers were going into stores and thinking why were shelves empty? You can always be spooked by viral news of shortages of something."
Evidence from America, which was seen as setting the trends for Australia, showed online shopping had increased as had home cooking.
"People will be playing the safety game, working from home, and ordering from home as well," he said.
"I would anticipate a move, and we've seen this in the UK as well, people are cooking more and cooking properly because the one thing you can't stockpile is fresh vegetables.
"It's a make do and mend, almost like a wartime spirit - like 10 things to do with a turnip, that will last you for a week."
He said there was an excellent opportunity for primary producers to bypass conventional retail channels.
"This is an opportunity which, in the right hands, shouldn't, and can't, just be a 'virus confined' opportunity," he said.
"If these primary producers can market the benefits of selling directly to the consumer, there could be some longevity, in that market."
Dr Ogden cited the example of the arrival of Aldi into Australia, at a time when the economy was weak.
"Once the upturn came, the commentators said everyone would abandon Aldi - nobody did because it was 'sticky' behaviour - people stuck with it."
"There is a real chance for this 'buy local' thing, and not just buying local but buying Australian."
New world
International data and analytics company GlobalData said retailers were starting to adapt delivery and returns policies to ensure customer and staff safety during the COVID-19 crisis.
These changes would transform consumer expectations of online delivery and returns.
Retail analyst Emily Salter said "contactless delivery" was widely introduce in China where the coronavirus outbreak started.
"The impacts of COVID-19 have the potential to decrease the popularity of click & collect beyond the outbreak as more people are expected to work from home in the long-term, so will be able to accept home deliveries," Ms Salter said.
"Additionally, when stores re-open many consumers will be reluctant to visit busy locations due to lingering concerns around their health."