"Bloody near perfect."
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That's what Parkes agronomist Peter Yelland reckons about the start to the winter cropping season.
The paddocks around Parkes are starting to look very green, and after the bumper crop of 2020, there is a lot for farmers to be smiling about.
"In some ways, we are doing a little bit better than this time last year...our moisture profile is very full at the moment," said Peter.
The Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science's (ABARES) June Agriculture Commodities report backed that up, saying Australian farmgate production is on track for a record-breaking $66.3 billion year.
ABARES acting executive director, Doctor Jared Greenville, said the value of agricultural exports is forecast at just under $47 billion in 2020-21.
"ABARES has revised both the gross value of production and the value of exports up by $400 million from earlier estimates," he said.
"The pace of Australian grain exports has been faster than expected after harvesting the second largest winter crop on record and we have also seen an impressive turnaround in wheat, barley and canola shipments," said Dr Greenville.
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Areas planted with wheat and barley are forecast to fall by up to five per cent - because it's all about the canola.
Area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 27 per cent to around 700,000 hectares in 2021-22, reflecting the high availability of soil moisture and very high canola prices.
Peter said there have been plenty of farmers in the region planting canola, and confidence has rebounded after the last devastating drought.
"At 720 bucks a tonne, if we can get two thirds of the yield we got last year with canola I'll be very happy.
"The price gives people more confidence to plant more canola, and to have that bucket of water underneath, there's a lot to be confident about," Peter said.
The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) seasonal outlook figures look good for the grains sector.
Vast swathes of the eastern half of the country have an 80 per cent change of exceeding median rainfall for July-September.
Good rain in the spring is the most valuable for croppers in terms of setting up yield potential though, and looking as far as October, there is a good chance for healthy rainfall according to the BOM.
It sounds pretty rosy for farmers, but will the mice plague have something to say about that? Peter is hopeful the worst of it is behind us.
"We're still a little bit in the unknown with mice, but they have reduced in activity the last three weeks which is a good sign," he said.
Baiting costs, contamination to store crop and preventing damages to crop development have hurt farmers in the hip pocket, but Peter is thankful many farmers in the region were thoroughly prepared.
For all your agronomy concerns, contact PY Agronomy on 0429 825 108 or peter@pyag.com.au.
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