A new report by Australian investigators into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 suggests the aircraft's flaps were not extended when it crashed, effectively ruling out the possibility of a controlled descent into the Indian Ocean.
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An analysis of data associated with the plane's final communications to and from the satellite was also "consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at that time", the Australian Transport Safety Bureau advised.
It came as experts met in Canberra to decide the future of the Australian-led search effort, which is expected to be extended to the north in a final attempt to locate the missing wreckage that could provide answers to the 32-month-old mystery.
The findings, presented in a report released on Wednesday, are significant because they cast doubt on the "controlled descent" theory being pushed by some observers and elements of the media. Instead, they support the theory that the plane entered an uncontrolled dive when it ran out of fuel over the Indian Ocean. However, some aviation experts have already questioned the usefulness of the report.
Analysis of debris from the plane's right wing, confirmed to belong to MH370, found some of the damage was "consistent with the flaps in the retracted position", leading investigators to conclude "the right outboard flap was most likely in the retracted position at the time it separated from the wing". The right flaperon was most likely at or close to the neutral position at the time of the crash, the report said.
In the controlled descent scenario, a rogue pilot – most likely the captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah – was at the controls and conscious when the flight with 239 people on board hit the water somewhere in the Indian Ocean. In a controlled ditching, the plane could have flown further and crashed south of the current search area.
ATSB search director Peter Foley said the new analysis provided "enhanced certainty" about what had happened to the doomed flight. "It was probably in a non-extended position, which means the aircraft wasn't configured for a landing or a ditching," he said. "You can draw your own conclusions as to whether that means someone was in control or not."
It is not possible to rule out the rogue pilot theory completely, as a person could have deliberately diverted the plane and allowed it to enter an uncontrolled descent when it ran out of fuel. Another expert, Jason Middleton, head of the School of Aviation at the University of New South Wales, said Wednesday's findings "only weakly" advanced the case.
"Nothing in that report is particularly definitive. The fact that the flaps weren't down only means that the pilot did not prepare for a controlled landing," Professor Middleton told Fairfax Media. "We're no further than we were one year ago. We still don't know what happened."
The local and international experts meeting in Canberra this week are understood to be devising a plan to extend the search area north to the 34th parallel. The ABC reported the ATSB was seeking another $30 million to continue its efforts.
Transport Minister Darren Chester said Wednesday's report contained important information on "what we believe" happened to MH370, and this week's summit would "inform the remainder of the search effort, and develop guidance for any future search operations".
MH370 disappeared from radar in March 2014 during a night-time flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. So-called "handshake" signals between the aircraft and satellites revealed the plane flew on for hours on an arc over the Indian Ocean.
So far, more than 20 items of debris of interest to the investigation team have been found off the coasts of mainland Africa and Madagascar, and the islands of Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues. But most major parts of the wreckage continue to elude search teams.
With David Wroe and agencies
