The dust-up happened in Dublin last month, where Snow Glow Elsa has reportedly sold out across Ireland and the United Kingdom, and is being scalped online ahead of Christmas. Demand for the $79 doll is also high in Australia: Target's online store has sold out; and a Toys 'R' Us clerk tells me on the phone to hurry as "they are going fast".

Unlucky parents might settle instead for the dozens of other Frozen-themed products, including a scooter, trike, tote bag, duffle bag, shoulder bag, sandwich container, moon chair, tumbler, torch, flute recorder, flip out sofa, jigsaw puzzle, glitter dome, keychain, bracelet, necklace, purse, stationery set or wig.

Manufacturers are also planning to release a limited edition Frozen hyperbaric chamber, in which Elsa sings Let It Go over and over as patients wearing Frozen scuba diving suits and oxygen masks are treated for the bends. Or perhaps I made that up. It's hard to distinguish between reality and hype at Christmas.

The news is mixed for retailers. Myer boss Bernie Brookes announced the department store would have to "make its own luck" this season. Target spokesman Jim Cooper tells me they're "hoping for a solid Christmas", on the back of sales of Disney dolls, Lego and Peppa Pig,  who remains popular despite earlier fears that the ABC might make her bacon.  Other "strong sellers" are expected to include "wild fig" handwash, beach towels and enormous chocolate balls.

Recent figures released by the Commonwealth Bank suggest Australians will each spend about $37 less through December and early January, compared with last year,  cutting the total spend this festive season from $18.4 billion to $17.8b. Consumer sentiment numbers remained poor, with people worried about losing their jobs and the outlook of the economy.

The biggest Christmas spenders were people in NSW,  where the average person is estimated to dole out $1339. Victorians spent a little less, at $1064. Queenslanders were the stingiest of the lot, spending a relatively paltry $779.

Countering such Christmas gloom was an IBISWorld report predicting the opposite: total spending will be 5.5 per cent higher than the 2013 festive season. Senior analyst Stephen Gargano says retail spending will jump 35 per cent this December, compared with average expenditure over the previous 11 months, on the back of strong demand for clothes, alcohol and electronic good, such as iPads and gaming consoles.

"The Christmas period tends to be pretty resilient to economic uncertainty," he says. "Often people will delay spending until Christmas, when they really let their hair down and still party, despite struggles during the rest of the year."

Plotting your path through such predictions can be as stultifying as choosing between a Peppa Pig door organiser, crayons or crackling. Forecasts run far and wide. One Christmas website reckons bling is big this year, including rhinestone-encrusted reindeer decorations. Another site tips a run on rustic wagon wheel Christmas wreaths.

A survey by the Australian National Retailers' Association in November found almost one in five shoppers would buy products online leading into Christmas. The association's chief Anna McPhee said only about 14 per cent of respondents reckoned they return unwanted gifts,  which proves two things: people lie in surveys; and none of my family members were included in the poll.

Australians spent a record $16.2 billion online in the year to October, according to the National Australia Bank. But even this figure was a mixed result: the spend was up 11.9 per cent on the previous year but then lower than the double-digit growth rates once enjoyed by online retailers. The fastest growing spending areas were electronic games and toys, followed by homewares.

Each year brings a new children's craze for parents to spend their money on: Tickle Me Elmos or loom bands or the creepy robotic Furby. This season, there's Frozen or My Friend Cayla, a doll dubbed "the smartest friend you'll ever have", which uses speech-to-text software to search Wikipedia for the answers to children's questions, perhaps: "Why is the sky blue?" or "Why can't I have a friend who doesn't need batteries?"

Myer's "giftorium" is spruiking Star Wars action figures or Lego's "Parisian restaurant", with its tiled kitchen and croissants. Lego's other model sets include a pet shop and a "research institute", featuring a palaeontologist, astronomer and chemist. For the less studious child, there's "prisoner transporter" Lego, with a policeman, handcuffs and Taser gun, possibly.

The top Christmas toys searched for on Google include My Little Pony, Lego, Barbie's dream house (a three-storey pad with fireplace, hot tub and "luxe stainless steel appliances") and ouija boards. Nerf guns remain popular, including one that boasts a video camera for kids to record their best battles and post them online.

Putting in her two cents to the silly season this week was Greens Senator Larissa Waters, who called on retailers to stop selling gender-stereotyped toys, arguing that "starkly separate aisles of pink and blue" could help feed issues such as domestic violence. The senator said "outdated stereotypes" such as giving guns to boys and dolls to girls perpetuated "gender inequality".

Presumably she hasn't seen the "Nerf Rebelle Blue Crush Water Blaster", for those special little ladies who want to blow someone away.