Population drain from regional areas will force the abolition of one federal electorate in NSW and a redistribution of electoral boundaries before the next election.
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The Australian Electoral Commission has said the growing population of Western Australia justifies an additional seat in Parliament for that state. However, the total number of seats in the House of Representatives will remain at 150.
Political pundits believe the biggest effects will be felt in the upper Hunter Valley and lower North Coast of NSW where enrolments have fallen the most dramatically.
But the redrawing of boundaries will effect the sparsely populated central division of NSW and even push the southern Sydney seat of Macarthur, held by Liberal Russell Matheson, south from Campbelltown and into the southern Highlands.
A Labor Party source said a potential redrawing of the boundaries of Hunter is not expected to pose a threat to long-time MP Joel Fitzgibbon.
But the ALP is concerned about a potential squeeze between two south seats in the Illawarra – Cunningham, held by Sharon Bird, a member of the NSW Right, and Throsby, the seat of Stephen Jones of the ALP's Left faction.
The National Party will watch the redistribution closely, with probable changes to the seat of Paterson, north of Newcastle, held by National Bob Baldwin.
ABC election expert Antony Green said Paterson could be affected, but said the southern NSW seat of Riverina, another National Party electorate, could be the one abolished.
"Due to geographical factors in NSW, particularly the Hawkesbury River and the Blue Mountains, you normally find that the changes happen up and down the Hume Highway," he said.
Mr Green believes the Riverina's name – signifying a distinct geographical area – could be its biggest weakness because the seat would probably have to move west.
Acting Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said: "The figures show the population has increased sufficiently to result in Western Australia increasing its entitlement from 15 to 16 seats. At the same time, the entitlement for New South Wales will reduce from 48 to 47."
A redistribution of federal electoral boundaries in the ACT is also required but he said the territory would not increase its representation in Parliament from its current two seats.
New federal electoral boundaries for NSW, WA and the ACT are not expected to be finalised until late 2015 or early 2016.
